Sunday, April 27, 2014

Final Words

            Participating in “The Stock Market Game” was a very interesting experience as it helped me to finally understand how the stock market works. I learned that investing in stocks is a very tedious and time consuming job. It requires extensive research and it calls for a risk-taker personality. One cannot simply purchase stocks from a company because they think it is a trending brand name. From my experience, I learned that investing can lead you to discover thousands of companies that many people have not heard about yet but that show potential for future growth. I also gained that in order to make maximum profits, an investor must watch the stock all day long in order to sell it at its peak price before it starts crashing. This leads me to say that as every stock might increase in price, it will eventually crash. Although each “crash” varies and some may be drastic while others minor, short time selling as my group and I experienced exhibits a lot of ups and downs. Overall, I have learned how to differentiate between investor worthy stocks and how to determine if a stock is worth the investment.

            At the beginning of our journey we hoped to earn $20,000 to use for our college tuition. However, our goal was not achieved due to a number of factors. First of all, finding stocks to buy in the short-run is very difficult and requires a lot of research. Many stocks are good to buy in the long-run to invest over several years or possibly over a lifetime. Second of all, no one knows how the market will do the next day. Even if a stock seems to be sky-rocketing in value it may at any minute crash without notice. Third of all, “The Stock Market Game” does not reflect how the stock market works in the real-world. Purchases made, let’s say on Tuesday will only be processed the next day which would be Wednesday and the same applies when stocks are sold. In the real world, when a stock is purchased, the purchase is processed right away. Hence, this led to a lot of confusion as we could not fully understand how to make sure that if we a buy a stock today it won’t crash tomorrow. As a result, even though we did not reach our goal, we did make a decent amount of money from several stocks.

            I do not plan to invest in the market in the future because I simply would not want to risk my earnings to be disappointed by huge losses. In addition, since investing requires a lot of time and dedication I do not think that I would be able to commit to such a task as I have many other interests. Yes, it would be absolutely amazing to earn millions as we hear from many investor stories. However, I do not think that investing is something that I could undertake.


            To someone who is new to The Stock Market Game, I would primarily advise him or her to conduct research on every stock before deciding to invest in it. Research, I believe, is the most important factor in successful investing. In addition, I would also advise him/her to understand all the different terms concerning each stock such as the P/E ratio, Trailing P/E, Forward P/E, PEG ratio, Book value, etc. These terms are really helpful when making a decision whether you should buy a stock. Lastly, I would advise him/her to try investing in a variety of companies in which some may deal with technology, others with vacation resorts, while others in material goods. Overall, I wish them luck!
                                                                               ~Ruta


While playing The Stock Market Game, I have learned much about the actual stock market, the trends that often occur, and the extensive research that one needs to do when investing in a stock. For instance, one of the main aspects of the stock market that I have learned is that it is an absolute necessity not only to know how well the stock has been doing recently, but whether it has a history of declining sharply, increasing sharply, or remaining constant. This will essentially help investors take note of whether they will be making the amount of money they intend to earn while investing and if they think it will be more efficient to take risks or, rather, “play it safe”. Additionally, I have learned that one must always be up to date with recent articles on the company or product they are investing in, which usually discusses negative press such as NSA spying with AT&T phones, or positive press such as the film “Frozen” being the highest grossing film for the Walt Disney company. I feel that this is the most essential part of investing in the stock market because knowing why a stock is doing well, or doing poorly is just as important as the actual profit earned, in order for one to predict whether they should continue investing in that stock, buy more shares, or just sell the stock altogether.
Initially, going into the game, we wanted to make about $20,000 for college tuition as quickly as possible. Therefore, our team’s goals were to buy cheap stocks, and not take the risky route, which we managed to do by investing in mainly technological companies that are usually always consistent and always produce innovative products that are in high demand. However, despite buying several stocks that were profiting well, and doing a lot of research, we did not reach our goal, simply because the stock market is very unpredictable, even if the stocks you are investing in are relatively consistent. In fact, there would be days, in which all of our stock prices would drop drastically and we’d lose a lot of money. We have even had to sell certain stocks upon realizing that we would be losing more money than earning, if we were to keep them. Furthermore, despite being an informative game, due to the stock market’s unpredictable nature, I do not see myself investing in the market in the future.
I feel that unless one has a stockbroker to manage their stocks and research current market trends for them, investing in a stock can be a very grueling process. Similar to the game, an investor may experience great losses, however, these losses will have an actual financial consequence if an investor does not know the tricks or strategies needed in order to make a profit in the market, such as short-selling. Although I do believe that some people will be able to end up very profitable from the stock market and will probably earn enough to buy a new car, or home, or pay off their student loans; there is simply too much risk in investing your money in something that can never truly be a sure thing.


My main advice to a newcomer in the SMG game is that simply because a product or company is currently popular in the media, or is well known, does not mean you should invest in it. Often times, those stocks tend to be the quite inconsistent and will drop immensely, for example, Facebook or Twitter. Finding the best, or most efficient stocks that will achieve your goals takes a large amount of research and you need to be willing to invest in corporations that are not necessarily highly advertised, or popular in the media. Like I have mentioned previously, the corporations that are most in demand involve technology, manufacturing, or energy resources. As an investor, one needs to be open to a variety of options for the best outcome. 
                                                                      ~Joel


Participating in the Stock Market Game was a very informative experience, and a rather close simulation to purchasing and selling stocks in the real world. In every aspect it was excellent preparation for our future, as we were as a group given a large sum of money, with the ultimate goal to make more money that we started off with. For me personally, it exemplified the instability of the stock market, since there was no way to know for sure whether the price of a stock would go up or down. Many stocks that we thought would do well ultimately ended up making us lose money, and vice versa. I also learned that before buying a stock, or selling one, it is very important to read about the surrounding information regarding that stock, and how the company is doing outside of stocks, as very often one affects the other. Another important thing to look for when buying a stock is the indicators, for example yearly high and yearly low, as they will help extrapolate how the stock will do the rest of the year.  

Our goals for the SMG were to end up with a profit of 20,000 dollars, but despite our research and hopeful predictions we were not able to meet that goal. Even though we attempted to extrapolate the data given by the stock tickers, because of the fact that the stock market is so unreliable and fickle, our predictions were not always accurate. In addition, we should have made a little more risky transactions, because those transactions though risky usually have a more significant profit in the end. However, in the end there were points where we were able to make more money that we started with, and that is good experience for all our expenditures in the future.

Based on my experiences with the SMG, I will most likely invest in the stock market when I have the opportunity to later in my adult life. More specifically a stock that is in the blue chip market, as they are very reliable and after a long time can produce a large profit. Most of them are relatively cheap, and very rarely cause financial dilemmas. One of these stocks include WalMart, which has been increasing in price steadily since the 1980’s, which is why the earlier you buy a blue chip stock, and the longer you keep it before selling, the larger the investment and end profit is. If I do decide to invest in the stock market, my strategy will reflect the plans that our group had during the SMG. I intend to purchase safe stocks, and make long term investments, to ensure that the probability of making a profit is as high as possible.

            The main advice that I can give newcomers to the game is to be as flexible as possible, since the stock market is constantly changing. Even though I think that it is very important to have a general strategy, the situation may call for the strategy to be broken, and to react accordingly. For this reason, a good idea is to have a schedule for the group members to check the stocks. That way, the stocks are always being looked at, so if a certain stock either goes rapidly up or down, the group as a whole will be able to handle the situation appropriately. That being said, cooperation is very important, because members need to find a way to communicate their ideas and intents, because everyone may not always agree with purchasing a stock, or selling a different one.
                                                                      ~Vlad


Thursday, April 10, 2014

The 5 DOs and 5 DON'Ts

To Buy

1. A good example of a safe stock would be that of Walt Disney. The prices have skyrocketed this year in 2014, and many people have made profits from these shares. Walt Disney is also considered a blue chip stock, which are considered to be the safest stocks to buy because of how stable and well blue chip companies seem to operate. The yearly high was $80.92, and the current price is around $78, well close to the yearly high. Many people also suspect that this number will surpass the yearly high, as the stock has been going up in price yearly. Dividends are paid consistently, as is accepted with blue chip stocks.
The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS) last released its earnings data on Wednesday, February 5th. The company reported $1.04 earnings per share for the quarter, surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.91. The company had revenue of $12.31 billion for the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $12.23 billion. The company’s revenue for the quarter was up 8.5% on a year-over-year basis. Analysts expect that The Walt Disney Company will post $4.04 earning per share for the current fiscal year.
The stock was also helped by the success of “Frozen”; the highest grossing animated film of all time. In the case of the Walt Disney stock, investors are buying on both strength and high hopes for future innovation. Additionally, with spring break and summer approaching, the revenue for theme parks and recreational centers such as Disney World or even Six Flags, is bound to increase.


2. Through our research, we believe that we should buy the Pepsi stock, being that the company has been earning a remarkable amount of income. PEPSICO INC has improved earnings per share by 5.7% in the most recent quarter compared to the same quarter a year ago. The company has shown a trend of positive earnings per share growth over the past two years. We feel that this trend will continue since the price of the stock has increased steadily over the past year. The stock is also very consistent, currently closing at $83.62 and having a 52-week high of $87.06, and a low of $77.01, very close numbers. During the past fiscal year, PEPSICO INC increased its bottom line, or net earnings, by earning $4.32 versus $3.92 in the prior year. This year, the market expects an improvement in earnings of $4.52 rather than $4.32.
The return on equity, or the profit the company generates with the money shareholders have invested, has improved when compared to the same quarter a year prior. When compared to other companies in the beverage industry and the overall market, PEPSICO INC's return on equity exceeds that of the industry average and significantly exceeds that of the S&P 500. Additionally, the gross profit margin for PEPSICO INC is very high, currently at 56.50%. 

3. JP Morgan Chase & Co. is a good company to invest into. JPM has a low trailing P/E of 13.24 and an even lower forward P/E of 9.08 which indicates that the company is undervalued. Its EPS is nearly double of the industry’s average which means each share makes double compared to the competition’s. The one year target estimate is nearly ten dollars more than the present price of the stock which means that stock analysts are positive and that the stock price will go up. The Price/Book ratio is low which means that the book value is high and the assets of the company still hold a lot of value. Finally, the dividend is 2.70% which is relatively high and since the dividend is the value of holding a stock, people will want to purchase this stock making the price go up in the future. (source)


4. Transocean Ltd. is a good company to invest into. The Price/Earning Ratio is lower than the industry’s average which indicates that the stock is undervalued. The Price/Book Ratio is low which means that the company’s assets have not been depreciated much and still hold a lot of value. The Operating Margin is higher than the industry’s which means that the profit margin is higher. The Current Ratio is in good range which means that it has good liquidity. The Liabilities to Total Assets Ratio is lower than the industry’s which means that the company has less risk. Also, the dividend payments are high and will pull more investors in. (source)

5. Microsoft has a low P/E of 14.58 which indicates that it is undervalued. It has a high dividend of 2.8%. It has a Beta of 0.69 making it less volatile than the overall market. Its One Year Target Estimate is higher than the current price which means that analysts favor this stock to go up. It has a high Operating Margin of 33.55%. The Forward Annual Dividend Yield is higher than the Trailing Annual Dividend Yield meaning that the dividend payments will increase, attracting more investors. (source)

Not to Buy 


1. Most stocks that are related to internet appliances like Facebook, or Yahoo, are considered to be unreliable and very risky. Many of them lead to loss of money for the stockowners who had bought shares. One of these companies is Twitter, which has been proven by history to be unreliable and fluctuate rapidly in terms of success rates. MSN recently published an article on their website, which compared Twitter to MySpace, which was a well-known wreck of an investment. The article states that the reason being is that it is not as famous as people make it seem to be. The social network Google+, which is often criticized for being unpopular, has 540 million users, which is twice as much as Twitter’s 241 million users. Another indicator of how poorly Twitter is doing is its P/E ratio, which is 4600 for the year 2014. That shows just how poorly twitter is doing, and how absurdly overpriced the stock is at this point. Google’s P/E is 13, and many people complain about the value of their stocks. That is why Twitter is a stock to NOT buy. (source) 

2. Time Warner cable has been decreasing in terms of stock price for the past 12 years, and most people believe that it won’t rise again. Its P/E value trailing from the last 12 months is currently 15.97, indicating that it is also slightly overpriced. Its yearly high is about $70, and it is currently worth about $64, which  means it’s closer to the yearly high. However, even if that is the case, the amount of money you make as a profit you would make from this stock is not significant enough to mention. However, unlike the other stocks we talked about, Time Warner Inc. is likely to change. The prices have been going up the last couple days, which may be due to the fact that a competitor, Cablevision (optimum), has been going down in price, and has been significantly worse than it used to be. So although as of now Time Warner Inc. is not a safe purchase, that may be likely to change depending on how the other service providers’ stocks will prove to function. (source)

3. Even though most stocks that are involved in technology are very safe to buy, Sony’s stock has been going down for the past 8 years. After reaching a highpoint in price in the year 2002, it suffered a massive drop in 2003, and has been consistently going down. In 2014, Sony released the long awaited “PlayStation 4”, which many speculated would help the stock of Sony. However, the speculations were inaccurate. Sony is a 20 billion dollar company, and just because one segment of the company is doing well, does not mean the same for the rest of the company. Another reason why Sony stocks are so unstable is because of the Yen. Because of the fact that Sony is a Japanese corporation, the yen has to compete with the dollar, and since the yen has been consistently dropping in value compared to the dollar, it has made monetary transactions from the U.S. much less profitable for the company as a whole. For these reasons, Sony is an unstable stock to purchase as of right now, and unless major changes are provided for the company, it will not be likely for the stock condition for Sony to change in the near future. (source) 


4. Currently, we believe that we should not buy the J.C. Penney stock. The average twelve-month target price among brokers that have issued a report on the stock in the last year is $9.43, however, shares of the J.C. Penney Company opened at $8.92 on Tuesday. J.C. Penney Company has a one year low of $4.90 and a one year high of $19.63, which is a large gap, meaning that it would be a great risk to buy. As of March 14th, there was short interest totaling 119,926,249 shares, a decline of 8.4% from the February 28th total of 130,861,833 shares.
J.C. Penney Company (NYSE:JCP) last issued its quarterly earnings data on Wednesday, February 26th. The company reported $0.68 earnings per share for the quarter, falling short of the consensus estimate of $0.76. The company had revenue of $3.78 billion for the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $3.94 billion. Additionally, the company’s revenue for the quarter was down 2.6% on a year-over-year basis. On average, analysts predict that J.C. Penney Company will post -$2.97 earnings per share for the current fiscal year. Reasons for the stock’s failure may stem from the fact that its more successful competitors, other retail stores such as Target and Macy’s, either offer cheaper products, or price promotions. Overall, if our group were to buy the J.C. Penney stock, we would simply lose money.

5.  Facebook is a stock you should not buy. It has a P/E ratio of 93.27 which is extremely high and indicates that the stock is extremely overvalued and since every stock price eventually returns to its intrinsic value, the stock price of Facebook should significantly decrease at some point in the future. Earnings per share are only .61 which is far below the industry average of 1.13 meaning that each share simply makes less than the competition’s shares. The PEG ratio is relatively high meaning that the expected growth rate for the next five years of the stock is low. The current ratio is very high which indicates that the company may not be efficiently using its current assets or its short-term financing facilities. The Beta is 1.77, making the stock very volatile and making such and investment very risky. If the market goes down, this stock will go down much more because of its high volatility. Finally, the company pays no dividends which is a huge deterrent for investing into the stock, and because the company is not constantly creating or innovating new products, it is very questionable as to what exactly they are doing with the profits. The board of directors are clearly not stockholder friendly. (source)

Terms 

P/E ratio: the price divided by the earnings; the higher the P/E the lower the earnings per share; a good stock has a low P/E
Trailing P/E: the current P/E based on the past 12 months
Forward P/E: prediction of the P/E in the next 12 months
PEG ratio: the PE divided by the expected growth rate; the smaller the PEG the higher the expected growth rate
Beta: the volatility of the stock
Volatility: the way a stock reacts compared to the market change
EPS: Earnings per share
Price/Book ratio: Price over Book value
Book Value: the value of a company’s assets
Operating Margin: measurement of what proportion of a company’s revenue is left over after paying for variable costs of production
The Current Ratio: assets divided by liabilities; the higher the ratio the better which means less debt and more assets hence the company is more liquid
The Liabilities to Total Assets Ratio: Liabilities divided by assets; the lower, the less risk of not being able to pay off debt


Thursday, April 3, 2014

Historical Analysis

Most of the stocks that we bought up to this point, as mentioned in our previous blog entry, are involved in the technology industry. This industry mostly provides consumer goods, and is generally considered very safe to invest in the stock market. The technology industry is constantly producing new goods, and the demand for utilities that make everyday mundane tasks easier is always increasing. For this reason, most stocks that are involved in the technological industry do well.

One of these companies is Apple, where the current stock value is $538.33, an immense amount of money for a stock, especially when compared to its price in 1984, which was $2.91. Apple constantly provides new and improved forms of technology since its founding in 1976. During March, since no new significant items were produced, its stock was doing very poorly. However, many people are predicting a revival during the month of April, because of many new products that are expected to be released (Kelley and Jegadeesh). One of the products many people are desperately waiting for is known as the iWatch or the iTV, which is promised to come out soon.

source

After observing the NASDAQ stock market, which is known for mainly having stocks of technological and computer-based companies, such as Google, Dell, and Cisco, it shows that within a year, from April 2013 to April 2014, the price of the market has increased from $32.57 to $36.43. Over six months, the price has increased from its initial cost of $31.79. However, within a time span of one month, the price had a sharp decrease from its initial cost of $40.04, and has even dropped from its initial cost the preceding week from $37.07. Although the industry has faced a slight decline recently, these prices are relatively consistent with one another, meaning that investing in any NASDAQ stock will not be a risk. As stated previously, new innovations in technology are consistently being made, keeping the technology industry high in demand. In fact, over the year the percentage change in NASDAQ stocks of 30.94% supersedes that of the S&P 500, and is more than double the percentage change of the Dow Jones, 12.98%. (source)

Based on our research we would recommend investing in stocks of Verizon Communications Inc., AT&T, and Cisco Systems to an investor interested in the technology industry. All three of these companies specialize in delivering the best, most updated access to data services to people. The three companies branch out in many areas and do not produce only one product. This allows them to have a wider range of success and attract different people to use their products and services. Recently, all three companies have released new products into the market showing guaranteed satisfaction and their stock values have showed an increase. However, we would also recommend to the investor to be cautious of these companies. One piece of advice would be that it is important to track the each company’s progress and research if they are planning to release any new products, updates, etc. If they are, then it is highly likely that the stock value will increase, but if the company is dormant and not releasing anything new, its value will decrease. Hence, technological companies do not always show a steady increase in value. Nevertheless, the demand for mobile phones, which can be bought through Verizon and AT&T, is predicted to increase dramatically in the upcoming years. According to an article from Wall Street Daily, “Over the next five years, mobile device subscriptions are expected to hit 7.1 billion, according to Ciscoandby 2020, Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) predicts that the number of mobile devices (smartphones, tablets, car electronics, etc.) could easily top 10 billion units” (Basenese). This goes on to show that the need for technology is only increasing and these three companies which provide best-selling products are worth investing in.

VZ
Verizon (source)

Because of the research that we have conducted, we can see that expectations can significantly either harm or benefit how well a stock is doing. In the future, before buying a stock that is involved with a technology company, we will be sure to extensively study what new products are expected to be released from that particular company. That way, we will be able to predict how the stock is going to behave, and adjust our plans accordingly in response to our research. We have also found that just because a technology stock is going down, it does not necessarily mean it will keep decreasing for a long time. Companies in this regard tend to compete for consumers, and releasing new and innovative products is a way that they each grab the attention of costumers willing to spend money.  

Additional Statistics on Technological Growth

source
source

Thursday, March 27, 2014

Our Philosophy

            As a group we have decided that we are going to make short-term investments, by buying cheap stocks and making a profit as soon as possible. Once we see that a certain stock has made a profit, we plan to sell it in order to avoid a risky drop in the stock at a later time. Our main plan of action is to “keep it safe”, and weigh the chances as much as possible to keep the statistics in our favor. We also do not plan on buying stocks that show a steady decrease in value because there is always a chance that they may continue to fall instead of increase in price. On the other hand, if we notice that a stock is increasing, we will invest in a certain number of those stocks. Ultimately, after a rise in the stock price, there will be an inevitable fall in price, which we can take advantage of by selling it at that moment, and making the largest net profit from that exchange. By the end of all the transactions after the 4 weeks, we intend to make a profit of $20,000, that we can use for our college tuition to further our education. 

        Most of our stocks are going to involve manufacturers that released new types of technology because stocks of that nature generally have a trend to increase since people are always investing money into the newest, evolved form of technology. Nonetheless, we will also be on a continuous lookout for other types of companies that have showed to be increasing in value. The Boston Company is one of the largest global investment management firms and it sees growing opportunities in security, big data, cloud based computing systems and social media technology. This company serves as an example as to why technology is sought after and expected to do well in the stock market, as we have predicted. 
We have already purchased stocks of several companies, adhering to our strategic plan of finding innovative technologies. One such company that is making technological strides is AT&T, because it has showed continuous expansion and coverage throughout the nation. Recently, it has introduced the HTC One® mobile phone with many new features, it has released an offer to several states such as Oklahoma and Arkansas to offer up to one year of free U-Verse high speed internet to small businesses, and it has expanded its 4G LTE network to new regions as part of its Project Velocity IP. It is one of the most well-known phone companies, so people are going to be willing to spend a portion of their money into a company that they think will do well, and has previously supplied the public with innovative technology. In addition to phones and data coverage, investments in biotechnology are safe to make as well. More specifically, the biotechnological company Amgen, delivers many health related products such as dialysis equipment, which finds high use in the medical field. Furthermore, it is working on extensive research to release new drugs which are expected to have many health benefits. Another company showing promising increases in stock value is Cisco Systems which manufactures and sells networking equipment. It has just released Cisco Aironet 2700 Series Access Point which is expected to help Local Area Network (LAN) to support mobile devices, apps, and data existent in high-density consumer areas. 

            Although we see many possible gains, one problem that our team noted right away was that the stocks, in The Stock Market Game, are only processed the day after a purchase is made. This may prove to be a major problem as there is no way of knowing for sure the prices of stocks the following day. If a stock is bought today and doing well, indicating an increase in value, the next day it might completely diminish in value and render huge losses. As a result, the game does not allow us to track the minute by minute progress of the stock immediately after its purchase. This adds much more risk, and decreases the amount of strategy that we have agreed upon. Another problem that can arise is that we might not earn enough of a profit due to the fact that we are “playing it safe". However, that can almost guarantee that we don’t lose the money that we were initially provided with.  

            Despite all the challenges and the unpredictability of the stock market, we look forward to making investments in different companies and earning a profit.